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Updated · 107 days to the general
The majority stops at the 51st seat — and the 51st seat is Alaska.
Republicans hold the Senate 53–47. Democrats need four. Getting to three is a conversation about favorable maps. Getting to four is a conversation about Alaska — where Mary Peltola has led four of the last five polls.
Aurora PAC is an independent expenditure–only committee supporting Mary Peltola for U.S. Senate. We work one race. All of it.
The case · Alaska
Sabato's Crystal Ball moved Alaska from Lean Republican to Toss-up on June 11, 2026. NPR has called it the majority maker. Three things make it winnable.
$15MRepublicans have committed fifteen million dollars to holding this seat, inside a $342 million national plan. Spending in Alaska's 2020 Senate race exceeded $57 million.
They spend that here because they know what it buys. In an electorate this size, a contribution is not a rounding error — it is the difference between competitive and invisible.
Aug 18Alaska runs a nonpartisan top-four primary on August 18, then decides the general on November 3 by ranked-choice voting.
No candidate needs a first-count majority. In a state where more than half of registered voters aren't affiliated with either major party, second choices decide the outcome — a mechanism no other competitive Senate race offers.
+11In 2024 Mary Peltola lost by 2.4 points while Trump carried Alaska by 13 — outrunning her own party's result in this state by roughly eleven points.
She raised $1.5 million in the first 24 hours of this campaign, 96% of it in gifts of $100 or less. Alaskans were funding this before the national money arrived.
The polling
Alaska is not a long shot. Mary Peltola has led four of the last five public polls of this race, by margins of five to seven points, in surveys of Alaska likely voters running back to March.
Polling compiled by FiftyPlusOne. Margins as published. LV = likely voters.
The single most recent survey — New York Times/Siena, fielded June 15–29 — shows the Republican incumbent up two points. That is well inside a normal margin of error, and it was taken on 593 likely voters, the smallest sample of any poll in this race. The four surveys before it, each with more than twice that sample, all had Peltola ahead.
We're not going to tell you she's a lock. Sabato's Crystal Ball rates this seat a Toss-up, and a toss-up is exactly what it looks like. But there is a difference between a race a Democrat is losing and a race a Democrat has led for four straight months and is now tied in.
This one is the second kind. It is close enough that money decides it — and it is the seat that finishes the majority.
Common questions
Four. Republicans hold the Senate 53–47, counting two independents who caucus with Democrats. Democrats need a net gain of four seats, which means holding every seat they currently have and flipping four Republican-held seats.
Only two of the four required seats are currently rated favorable for Democrats. The rest have to be won in states that lean Republican. Alaska is the most winnable of those: Sabato's Crystal Ball moved it from Lean Republican to Toss-up on June 11, 2026, it has the smallest electorate of any competitive race, and its ranked-choice ballot lets a candidate win without a first-count majority. NPR has called it the "majority maker."
It is close. Mary Peltola led four consecutive Alaska Survey Research polls of likely voters from March through early June, by margins of five to seven points. The most recent survey, from the New York Times and Siena fielded June 15–29, showed Dan Sullivan ahead by two points on a sample of 593 likely voters. Sabato's Crystal Ball rates the seat a Toss-up.
The nonpartisan top-four primary is August 18, 2026. The general election is November 3, 2026, decided by ranked-choice voting among the four candidates who advance from the primary.
No candidate needs a majority on the first count. If nobody clears 50%, the last-place candidate is eliminated and their voters' second choices are redistributed. In Alaska, where more than half of registered voters are not affiliated with either major party, second-choice rankings frequently decide the winner — which favors a candidate with crossover appeal.
Contributions to a candidate's campaign are capped by federal law. An independent expenditure–only committee — a super PAC — may accept unlimited contributions from individuals, but it cannot coordinate with the candidate or the campaign in any way. Aurora PAC is an independent expenditure–only committee.
One race. All of it.
National committees spread your contribution across a dozen states. We spend every dollar on the one that decides whether the other eleven mattered.
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